According to the European Commission, wine production in the EU is expected to slightly decline in 2025 (-1% year-on-year) and remain around 7% below the 5-year average.

Wine production in Spain (ES) is set to return to 5-year average levels, thanks to a recovery in the key wine-producing region of Castilla-La Mancha, which last year suffered from drought and high temperatures.

Extremadura and Rioja also have better outlooks than last year. However, other regions have been affected by adverse weather events and are expected to experience lower yields. For example, Castilla y León was hit by frost and heavy rainfall, while Murcia has once again suffered from drought.

In France (FR), the harvest is expected to be lower than last year across most wine regions, mainly due to fungal infections following wet weather, as well as spring hailstorms, leading to an overall decline of 10% below the national 5-year average.

In Italy (IT), the situation is more mixed. Dry weather could reduce production volumes in the south but result in high-quality wines due to the absence of diseases (e.g., in Sicily), while wet weather in the north could lead to fungal infections in some areas.

Overall, production in Italy is forecast to grow by 7%, but it will still remain below average levels. In Germany (DE), a good-quality harvest is expected in the main wine regions, but some eastern areas were severely affected by spring frost, with losses of up to 80%.

As a result, Germany's overall volumes are expected to be lower than last year (-6%). In Portugal (PT), production may decline by around 3%, driven by decreases in the main wine regions: Douro, Lisboa, and Alentejo.